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The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
General Dynamics
GD · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $96.5B · 110,000 employees
General Dynamics Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense company worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
356.58 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
General Dynamics holds its Markdown at $356.58. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$356.58
Valuation
21.76 trailing · 19.18 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 6% discount to our $376.57 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 8.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Defense Giant Trips Over Its Own Ethics Line
Every time a navy orders another submarine or a business buys a new jet, General Dynamics stands ready with the hardware. Yet we pass, for two clear reasons that have nothing to do with the quality of the work. The shares trade at our fair value with a margin of safety near zero, and the business fails our ethical screen outright.
Revenue is growing at 10 percent with an 8 percent profit margin and an 18 percent return on equity, but the forward multiple of 20 times earnings looks full for a narrow-moat contractor. Analysts like the name and see upside, yet none of that moves the ethical verdict.
Risk centres on sudden shifts in defence budgets and the narrow edge that leaves little pricing power when contracts tighten. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GD trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $392.
2026-07-22Markup$368.58+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $392. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$368.58+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $392. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$368.58+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $392. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$368.58+6.4%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $392. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$346.44+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $392. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$346.44+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $392. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$346.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $392. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$346.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$346.44Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.