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The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Howmet Aerospace
HWM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $92.3B · 25,430 employees
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
231.53 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Howmet Aerospace holds its Distribution at $231.53. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 262 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 262 days
Price at the screen
$231.53
Valuation
49.90 trailing · 36.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 1% discount to our $234.19 fair value, strong competitive moat, 24.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Engine maker that fails the ethical test
Every commercial flight or military sortie depends on precision parts that keep turbines spinning at thirty thousand feet. Howmet supplies those components across aerospace and defence programmes worldwide.
We pass on the name despite nineteen percent revenue growth, twenty percent margins and a thirty four percent return on equity. The forward multiple sits at forty five times earnings while the shares trade twenty one percent above our fair value. On top of that the business fails our ethical screen on activity grounds.
High returns and a strong moat cannot offset the valuation gap or the ethical exclusion. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HWM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303.
2026-08-06Markup$291.42+0.7%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Markup$289.26+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$289.26+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$289.26+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$289.26+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$289.26+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$289.26+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$289.26+14.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$251.90+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
