Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.23, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price213.56 USD
Fair value231.04
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Distribution219.70-2.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 5% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markdown232.48-8.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 15% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-05Read Distribution273.64-22.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 9% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup251.90-15.2% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Howmet Aerospace holds its Distribution at $213.56. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$213.56
Valuation
44.38 trailing · 31.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Howmet Aerospace does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when HWM's ethical verdict changes
Today HWM does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by AFSC divest list for manufacturing advanced aerospace components and engine parts used in military aircraft supplied to the Israeli Air Force. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $231.04 fair value, strong competitive moat, 24.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $231.04, with a range of $229.50 to $265.69, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Engine maker that fails the ethical test
Every commercial flight or military sortie depends on precision parts that keep turbines spinning at thirty thousand feet. Howmet supplies those components across aerospace and defence programmes worldwide.
We pass on the name despite nineteen percent revenue growth, twenty percent margins and a thirty four percent return on equity. The forward multiple sits at forty five times earnings while the shares trade twenty one percent above our fair value. On top of that the business fails our ethical screen on activity grounds.
High returns and a strong moat cannot offset the valuation gap or the ethical exclusion. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HWM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$213.56+14.9%Entry 24
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 14.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303.
2026-10-29Distribution$185.91-15.4%Entry 23
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 15.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$219.70+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$219.70+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$219.70+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$219.70+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$219.70+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$219.70+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$219.70-5.5%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $303.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
