The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $705. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Northrop Grumman NOC
Outside both standardsAn entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally.
read at $542.24
Northrop Grumman holds its Distribution at $542.24.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days |
| Price | $542.24 |
| Valuation | 17.22 trailing · 17.86 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | -0.10 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $490.65 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 5.10% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
| Revenue growth | 5.10% |
| Profit margin | 10.48% |
| Debt to equity | 95.35 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 21 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Business activity: Aerospace & Defense Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Defence Giant Fails Our Ethical Screen
Northrop Grumman turns government cheques into fighters, missiles and satellites that keep the defence budgets flowing. We are staying away, for two reasons that have nothing to do with whether the business is good. First, the shares trade above our fair value with a negative margin of safety. Second, it fails our ethical screen on business activity.
Revenue edges up just 4 percent while margins sit at 11 percent and ROE reaches 29 percent. The moderate moat and forward multiple of 17.3 times look steady, yet the ethical flag overrides any surface appeal. Twenty-one analysts still rate it a buy with a much higher median target, but that is not our call.
Risk sits with prolonged government spending cycles and shifting political priorities that can swing results fast. The ethical screen exists precisely to keep us out of sectors we choose not to own. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 17.9x expensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 17.2x reasonably valued |
| Revenue growth | 5.1% slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 10.5% thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 27.0% an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 0.95 moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.17 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | -0.10 barely tracks the market's swings |
| Market cap | $77.0B |
| Employees | 95,000 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on NOC
- › Can Lockheed Martin's Missile Defense Business Power Long-Term Growth? Zacks · 15d ago
- › Is RTX Expanding Its Presence in the Fighter Aircraft Market? Zacks · 15d ago
- › Should You Buy the Dip in Drone Stocks and ETFs? Zacks · 16d ago
- › Northrop Grumman to Post Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect Zacks · 16d ago
- › Lockheed Martin (LMT) Reports Next Week: What to Expect Zacks · 16d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in NOC's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
NOC trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $705. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $705. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $705. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $705. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $705. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Welsh Mark A III | Dir | Sale | 95 | $54,310 |
| 2026-03-02 | Simpson Kathryn G | Corp VP, GC | Sale | 873 | $650,385 |
| 2026-02-27 | Roeder Roshan S | CVP, Pres Mission Systems | Sale | 1,754 | $1,262,880 |
| 2026-02-19 | Simpson Kathryn G | Corp VP, GC | Sale | 194 | $141,158 |
| 2026-02-19 | Roeder Roshan S | CVP, Pres Mission Systems | Sale | 512 | $372,541 |
| 2026-02-19 | Hardesty Michael A | Corp VP, Controller, CAO | Sale | 147 | $107,748 |
| 2026-02-18 | Davies Benjamin R. | CVP, Pres Defense Systems | Sale | 2,189 | $1,575,255 |
| 2026-02-17 | Hardesty Michael A | Corp VP, Controller, CAO | Sale | 716 | $501,609 |
| 2026-02-17 | Simpson Kathryn G | Corp VP, GC | Sale | 779 | $547,294 |
| 2026-02-17 | Roeder Roshan S | CVP, Pres Mission Systems | Sale | 318 | $223,414 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Bill Keating | Democrat | Purchase | 1K–15K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $545.81 | -0.5% | $2.47 | $1,000 | 0.0% |
| 2 months | $670.78 | -19.0% | $2.47 | $813 | -18.7% |
| 3 months | $733.07 | -25.9% | $2.47 | $744 | -25.6% |
| 6 months | $555.81 | -2.3% | $4.78 | $986 | -1.4% |
| 1 year | $481.25 | +12.9% | $9.40 | $1,148 | +14.8% |
| 2 years | $421.64 | +28.8% | $17.89 | $1,331 | +33.1% |
| 3 years | $432.19 | +25.7% | $25.56 | $1,316 | +31.6% |
| 5 years | $345.91 | +57.0% | $39.06 | $1,683 | +68.3% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.