NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Axon Enterprise
AXON · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $39.8B · 5,100 employees
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
490.00 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Axon Enterprise holds its Distribution at $490.00. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$490.00
Valuation
205.88 trailing · 46.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $455.74 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 35.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +43% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bodycam Firm Trips Over Ethical Red Line
Every officer who clips on a bodycam or reaches for a conducted energy device feeds revenue into Axon. The company sits at the centre of that public safety stack, posting 34% revenue growth and a narrow moat built on hardware plus cloud software.
We pass. The business fails the ethical screen outright. On top of that the shares trade at a 48.3 times forward multiple and sit 11% above our fair value of 455 dollars, leaving little room for error even if growth holds.
Low returns on equity at 7% and thin 7% profit margins already signal limited pricing power. Analyst targets at 700 dollars ignore both the valuation gap and the ethical block. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXON trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup · changed$627.75+23.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 23.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662.
2026-07-22Distribution$510.28+5.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662.
2026-07-18Distribution$486.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662.
2026-07-03Distribution$486.12+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$486.12Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
