Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.44, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price424.18 USD
Fair value449.13
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Accumulation423.17+0.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-11Read Markdown424.75-0.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 2 weeks
2026-09-24Read Distribution452.06-6.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 28% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-22Read Markup627.75-32.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 29% rise in 7 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Axon Enterprise holds its Accumulation at $424.18. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$424.18
Valuation
177.50 trailing · 40.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.44
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Axon Enterprise does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today AXON does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $449.13 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 35.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $449.13, with a range of $396.00 to $516.50, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bodycam Firm Trips Over Ethical Red Line
Every officer who clips on a bodycam or reaches for a conducted energy device feeds revenue into Axon. The company sits at the centre of that public safety stack, posting 34% revenue growth and a narrow moat built on hardware plus cloud software.
We pass. The business fails the ethical screen outright. On top of that the shares trade at a 48.3 times forward multiple and sit 11% above our fair value of 455 dollars, leaving little room for error even if growth holds.
Low returns on equity at 7% and thin 7% profit margins already signal limited pricing power. Analyst targets at 700 dollars ignore both the valuation gap and the ethical block. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXON trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$424.18+1.8%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$416.57-2.6%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$427.77+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$427.77+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$427.77+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$427.77+1.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$423.17+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$417.19+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662.
2026-10-18Markdown$417.19-1.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $662.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
