An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · JPMorgan Chase & Co.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $341.10
JPMorgan Chase holds its Distribution at $341.10.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 263 days
Price
$341.10
Valuation
14.62 trailing · 13.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.98
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Business activityBusiness activity: Financials sectorFail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $369.11 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 30.40% revenue growth.
Read at
$341.10
14.62 P/E · 13.89 fwd
Our fair value
$369.11
8% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$370.00
+8% to current
Target low $305.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $420.00
▲ current $341.10 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$341.10
you are here
Conservative
$276.17
-19%
Analyst avg
$370.00
+8%
Our fair value
$369.11
+8%
Analyst high
$420.00
+23%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
30.40%
Profit margin
34.92%
Analyst consensus
Buy · 21 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Everyday Banking Giant Trips the Ethics Line
Walk into any branch or open an app and JPMorgan sits behind millions of daily transfers, mortgages and pay packets. The numbers look sturdy too, with 30 percent revenue growth, a 35 percent profit margin and 18 percent ROE at a forward multiple of 13.9 times. Analysts see further upside from here.
We pass anyway. The business activity screen flags the firm outright, and that single failure overrides the solid returns and moderate moat. Price sits only modestly below our fair value, so there is no valuation cushion to debate.
The bigger concern is that the very activities triggering the screen bring persistent regulatory and reputational pressure that can hit earnings without warning. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
JPM trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $342. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$312.37+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $342.
2026-07-03Distribution$312.37+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$312.37Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
