JPM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $934.5B · 320,079 employees
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
351.55 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-20
Screened 2026-08-20 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
JPMorgan Chase holds its Accumulation at $351.55. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 263 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-20
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 263 days
Price at the screen
$351.55
Valuation
15.07 trailing · 14.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 6% discount to our $373.55 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 30.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-20 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-20 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The Bank that Fails the Ethical Test
Imagine you're dealing with a bank that's as big as the economy of a small nation, well, that's JPMorgan. It's a banking giant with operations spread across the globe, and its revenue growth is nothing to sniff at, clocking in at 30%. The profit margin is a robust 35%, and the return on equity is a respectable 18%, indicative of a well-oiled financial machine. Why we pass. Despite these numbers, JPMorgan Chase stumbles at our ethical screen, falling short on business activity criteria.
What's holding it back is not a lack of financial performance but an ethical misalignment that's at odds with our principles. The market consensus is a resounding buy, with a median target that almost matches our fair value of $373.55, suggesting there's a margin of safety of about 6%. However, the ethical failings are a critical factor in our decision to steer clear.
Risk here is twofold: firstly, the ethical concerns which are non-negotiable for us, and secondly, the cyclical nature of the banking sector which can sometimes trap investors with a low P/E during peak earnings, potentially masking the true value. Our investors deserve both financial returns and peace of mind, and in this case, we find the latter lacking. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JPM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $375.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$353.21+13.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $342.
2026-07-18Distribution$312.37+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $342.
2026-07-03Distribution$312.37+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$312.37Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
