Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-04
Options put/call open interest 0.89, read 2026-10-21
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price335.28 USD
Fair value377.15
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown343.06-2.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown while volume still accumulates
2026-09-03Read Accumulation351.55-4.6% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
2026-08-03Read Markup353.21-5.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 13% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution312.37+7.3% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
JPMorgan Chase holds its Markdown at $335.28. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-14
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$335.28
Valuation
14.06 trailing · 13.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
JPMorgan Chase does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-22. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today JPM does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 13% discount to our $377.15 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 10.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The Bank that Fails the Ethical Test
Imagine you're dealing with a bank that's as big as the economy of a small nation, well, that's JPMorgan. It's a banking giant with operations spread across the globe, and its revenue growth is nothing to sniff at, clocking in at 30%. The profit margin is a robust 35%, and the return on equity is a respectable 18%, indicative of a well-oiled financial machine. Why we pass. Despite these numbers, JPMorgan Chase stumbles at our ethical screen, falling short on business activity criteria.
What's holding it back is not a lack of financial performance but an ethical misalignment that's at odds with our principles. The market consensus is a resounding buy, with a median target that almost matches our fair value of $373.55, suggesting there's a margin of safety of about 6%. However, the ethical failings are a critical factor in our decision to steer clear.
Risk here is twofold: firstly, the ethical concerns which are non-negotiable for us, and secondly, the cyclical nature of the banking sector which can sometimes trap investors with a low P/E during peak earnings, potentially masking the true value. Our investors deserve both financial returns and peace of mind, and in this case, we find the latter lacking. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JPM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-20Markdown$335.28+0.7%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $373.
2026-10-13Markdown$332.99+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $372. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Markdown$332.99-2.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $373. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Markdown$343.06+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $373. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Markdown$343.06+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $373. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$343.06-2.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $376.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $375.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$353.21+13.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $342.
2026-07-18Distribution$312.37+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $342.
2026-07-03Distribution$312.37+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
