The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Johnson Controls
JCI · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $87.5B · 87,000 employees
Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, a…
Screened 2026-07-24 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Johnson Controls holds its Distribution at $143.37. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 137 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 137 days
Price at the screen
$143.37
Valuation
43.84 trailing · 24.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.6
Beta
1.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $104.38 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 8.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 27.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Office towers mask a stretched building stock
Picture a contractor quoting on a new headquarters. Every pipe, sensor and chiller has to work across borders and building codes. Johnson Controls sits in that chain, yet investors are paying 24.4 times forward earnings for 8 percent revenue growth and a 14 percent profit margin.
The shares sit 28 percent above our fair value of 101.85 dollars. A moderate moat and 13 percent return on equity do not justify the premium when the market already prices in steady expansion. We therefore pass.
The real hazard is the cycle. Construction spending can flatten fast, and a high multiple paid at peak demand often turns into a value trap once orders slow. Currency moves and project delays add further pressure. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JCI trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-24Distribution$140.46+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$140.46+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$140.46+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$140.46-2.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$143.65+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-07-03Distribution$143.65+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$143.65Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
