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The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
TTTrane Technologies
TT · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $94.9B · 44,000 employees
Trane Technologies plc designs, manufactures, sells, and services of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and custom and transport refrigeration.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.45, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price392.43 USD
Fair value342.77
Ethical score85.9/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Distribution417.44-6.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 9% slide in 7 days
2026-10-28Read Markup457.36-14.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
2026-08-29Read Accumulation451.10-13.0% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Distribution456.84-14.1% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Trane Technologies holds its Distribution at $392.43. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$392.43
Valuation
32.12 trailing · 24.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.9
Beta
1.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.55%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.34%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.04%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Trane Technologies clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 22%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $342.77 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 10.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $342.77, with a range of $342.77 to $394.19, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trane cools buildings but overheats its price
Picture a heatwave hitting a city and every office block needing new chillers. Trane Technologies sits at the centre of that demand, selling heating and cooling systems with a 13 percent profit margin and 37 percent return on equity. Yet the shares trade at 27.5 times forward earnings, well above our fair value and a 28 percent premium to where the numbers justify.
We pass because the business is valued as if growth and margins will stay elevated forever. Revenue is rising only 6 percent a year in a moderate-moat industry that moves with construction cycles and energy prices. Analyst targets sit higher still, but those forecasts rarely price in the downturns that reset earnings.
The real risk is the classic cyclical trap. A high multiple on peak earnings looks expensive once orders slow, and a 6 percent top line does not justify paying up today. Ethical screen cleared, valuation does not.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TT trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$457.36+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520.
2026-10-21Accumulation$457.36-4.1%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520.
2026-10-14Accumulation$476.98+5.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520.
2026-10-02Accumulation$454.44+0.7%Entry 12
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520.
2026-07-28Distribution$480.99+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$480.99+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$480.99+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$480.99+2.3%Entry 7
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.