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The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Trane Technologies
TT · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $98.1B · 44,000 employees
Trane Technologies plc designs, manufactures, sells, and services of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and custom and transport refrigeration.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price429.11 USD
Fair value340.05
Ethical score85.9/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-29Read Accumulation451.10-4.9% to today
2026-07-03Read Distribution456.84-6.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Trane Technologies holds its Markdown at $429.11. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 80 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 80 days
Price at the screen
$429.11
Valuation
33.18 trailing · 25.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.9
Beta
1.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.55%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.34%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.04%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $340.05 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 10.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trane cools buildings but overheats its price
Picture a heatwave hitting a city and every office block needing new chillers. Trane Technologies sits at the centre of that demand, selling heating and cooling systems with a 13 percent profit margin and 37 percent return on equity. Yet the shares trade at 27.5 times forward earnings, well above our fair value and a 28 percent premium to where the numbers justify.
We pass because the business is valued as if growth and margins will stay elevated forever. Revenue is rising only 6 percent a year in a moderate-moat industry that moves with construction cycles and energy prices. Analyst targets sit higher still, but those forecasts rarely price in the downturns that reset earnings.
The real risk is the classic cyclical trap. A high multiple on peak earnings looks expensive once orders slow, and a 6 percent top line does not justify paying up today. Ethical screen cleared, valuation does not.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TT trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520.
2026-07-28Distribution$480.99+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$480.99+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$480.99+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$480.99+2.3%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$469.98+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$469.98+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$469.98+2.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$456.84+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $520.
2026-07-03Distribution$456.84+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.