The Screen · Technology · Information Technology Services
IBM
IBM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $218.7B · 264,300 employees
International Business Machines Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated solutions and services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
232.09 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
IBM holds its Markup at $232.09. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$232.09
Valuation
20.63 trailing · 17.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.71
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.55%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.96%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for legacy technology contracts and ongoing operations supporting Israeli government infrastructure. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 9% discount to our $253.46 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 1.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
IBM Struggles Under Debt, Misses the Mark
Consider this scenario; a once-great innovator, burdened with heavy debt, is now clawing its way back to relevance. That's IBM in a nutshell. The firm, renowned for its contributions to technology and information services, is currently weighed down by a debt-heavy balance sheet that fails our strict ethical screen. Why it stands out, or rather, why we pass, is due to these financial constraints and its failure to meet our ethical standards.
Despite showing a modest 1% revenue growth and a healthy 16% profit margin, IBM's debt ratio disqualifies it from our ethical investment considerations. The market, represented by 23 analysts with a median target price of $245, seems to have an optimistic outlook, but our fair value sits at $252.51, which does offer an 8% margin of safety. However, ethical considerations are paramount, and the debt burden is a red flag.
Risk is also apparent in IBM's moderate moat and a forward P/E of 17.8x, which, while not exorbitant, does not scream value given the ethical failings. The company operates globally across Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing segments, but its debt issues overshadow these operations. This is a business that, while historically significant, now requires a cautious approach due to ethical and financial considerations.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IBM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup$233.69+9.9%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278.
2026-07-22Markup$212.67+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$212.67+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$212.67+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$212.67-25.3%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 25.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$284.84+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$284.84+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$284.84+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$284.84+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$284.84Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.