Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-02
Options put/call open interest 0.34, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price34.43 USD
Fair value35.02
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Distribution31.85+8.1% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-10-02Read Markdown31.85+8.1% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Markup35.29-2.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-07-25Read Distribution34.440.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 17% rise in 3 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Chipotle Mexican Grill holds its Markup at $34.43. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days
Price at the screen
$34.43
Valuation
28.70 trailing · 22.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.96
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.62%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Chipotle Mexican Grill's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 56% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $35.02 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 9.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.7% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 31 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $35.02, with a range of $28.80 to $40.28, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chipotle's Debt Load Trips Ethical Line
Picture a burrito chain loved for its quick bowls yet weighed down by borrowing that fails a basic debt check. We pass on Chipotle because the ethical screen flags its debt ratio, and that single issue overrides the rest of the picture.
Revenue grows at a modest 7 percent with 12 percent profit margins and a 49 percent ROE, yet the forward multiple sits at 25.4 times and the moat is only moderate. The stock trades near our fair value with a slim 6 percent margin of safety, so nothing here offsets the ethical red flag.
Analysts may still see upside to 43 dollars, but cyclical restaurant spending can shift fast and any extra leverage amplifies the swing. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$33.26+8.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-28Distribution$30.58+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$30.58+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$30.58+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$30.58+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$30.58+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$30.58+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$30.58+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$30.58+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$30.58-4.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
