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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Chipotle Mexican Grill
CMG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $45.6B · 135,000 employees
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
36.03 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Chipotle Mexican Grill holds its Markup at $36.03. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$36.03
Valuation
33.36 trailing · 26.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.62%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $36.82 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 9.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 32 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chipotle's Debt Load Trips Ethical Line
Picture a burrito chain loved for its quick bowls yet weighed down by borrowing that fails a basic debt check. We pass on Chipotle because the ethical screen flags its debt ratio, and that single issue overrides the rest of the picture.
Revenue grows at a modest 7 percent with 12 percent profit margins and a 49 percent ROE, yet the forward multiple sits at 25.4 times and the moat is only moderate. The stock trades near our fair value with a slim 6 percent margin of safety, so nothing here offsets the ethical red flag.
Analysts may still see upside to 43 dollars, but cyclical restaurant spending can shift fast and any extra leverage amplifies the swing. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup · changed$35.29+2.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 17.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-18Markdown$29.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-03Markdown$29.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$29.34Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
