An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $391.98
AppLovin holds its Markdown at $391.98.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days
Price
$391.98
Valuation
34.11 trailing · 18.09 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
2.48
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 56% discount to our $611.76 fair value, strong competitive moat, 59.00% revenue growth.
Read at
$391.98
34.11 P/E · 18.09 fwd
Our fair value
$611.76
56% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$660.00
+68% to current
Target low $406.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $860.00
▲ current $391.98 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$391.98
you are here
Conservative
$422.64
+8%
Analyst avg
$660.00
+68%
Our fair value
$611.76
+56%
Analyst high
$860.00
+119%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
59.00%
Profit margin
64.29%
Debt to equity
162.89
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 30 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 48.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 59.3% of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Ad platform posts monster numbers but fails ethics
Picture a developer turning every mobile game into a cash engine for advertisers. AppLovin runs the AI that matches users to ads across its own apps and thousands of others, delivering 59% revenue growth, 64% profit margins and 266% ROE.
Those figures explain the strong moat and why thirty analysts call it a strong buy with targets near 660. We pass anyway. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio, and that single failure outweighs the rest of the scorecard.
High leverage leaves the business exposed if ad spend slows or rates stay higher for longer. The valuation offers a margin of safety on paper, yet the debt issue keeps us on the sidelines.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
APP trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-08-02 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-02Distribution$391.98+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$391.98+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Distribution$391.98+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$424.54-23.8%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 23.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644.
2026-07-18Accumulation$557.20+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644.
2026-07-17Accumulation$557.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644.
2026-07-03Accumulation$557.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$557.20Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
