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The Screen · Technology · Advertising Agencies
AppLovin
APP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $85.3B · 876 employees
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
391.22 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 04:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price391.22 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.09, read 2026-11-07
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price391.22 USD
Fair value486.83
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-05Read Markdown308.77+26.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 26% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-06Read Distribution417.80-6.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% rise in 3 days
2026-08-03Read Markdown391.98-0.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-07-30Read Distribution391.98-0.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 30% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AppLovin holds its Markup at $391.22. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$391.22
Valuation
19.59 trailing · 12.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
2.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.83%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.96%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
59.32%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 59.3% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
AppLovin's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 49% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens. Its receivables are also high.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $486.83 fair value, strong competitive moat, 52.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $486.83, with a range of $400.25 to $667.08, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ad platform posts monster numbers but fails ethics
Picture a developer turning every mobile game into a cash engine for advertisers. AppLovin runs the AI that matches users to ads across its own apps and thousands of others, delivering 59% revenue growth, 64% profit margins and 266% ROE.
Those figures explain the strong moat and why thirty analysts call it a strong buy with targets near 660. We pass anyway. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio, and that single failure outweighs the rest of the scorecard.
High leverage leaves the business exposed if ad spend slows or rates stay higher for longer. The valuation offers a margin of safety on paper, yet the debt issue keeps us on the sidelines.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown$245.51+7.4%Entry 26
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$228.50+0.0%Entry 25
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$228.50+0.0%Entry 24
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$228.50-10.4%Entry 23
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$254.91+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$254.91-1.9%Entry 21
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$259.97-6.9%Entry 20
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$279.29+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$279.29+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644.
2026-10-19Markdown$279.29+0.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 47%. The street (30 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $644.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
