An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $34.50
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. holds its Markup at $34.50.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days
Price
$34.50
Valuation
N/A trailing · 19.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.64
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$34.50
N/A P/E · 19.64 fwd
Our fair value
$27.45
20% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$31.50
-9% to current
Target low $13.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $40.00
▲ current $34.50 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$34.50
you are here
Conservative
$17.55
-49%
Analyst avg
$31.50
-9%
Our fair value
$27.45
-20%
Analyst high
$40.00
+16%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
7.60%
Profit margin
-32.84%
Debt to equity
124.18
Analyst consensus
Buy · 14 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 84.9%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Behavioral Health Operator Priced Well Beyond Its Worth
Picture a patient checking into one of the acute psychiatric wards this company runs across the US and Puerto Rico. The service meets a clear need, yet the numbers tell a harsher story. Shares sit at $34.50 against our fair value of $27.45, giving a negative margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. Forward earnings sit at 19.6 times while revenue edges up only 8 percent and both profit margin and return on equity remain deeply negative.
We pass because the current price already bakes in optimism the business has not delivered. Losses of 33 percent on the bottom line and a 41 percent negative return on equity point to structural pressure rather than temporary noise. Analyst consensus leans buy with a $32 median target, yet that still leaves the stock expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
Currency and reimbursement risk in behavioural care can swing results fast, and negative margins leave little room for error. The ethical screen clears, which removes one objection, but the valuation gap and weak returns keep us on the sidelines. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ACHC trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 40.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28. Entered 2026-07-20 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Distribution$34.50+40.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 40.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-18Distribution$24.60+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-16Distribution$24.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-03Distribution$24.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$24.60Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$25.01
-4.3%
·
$957
-4.3%
2 months
$25.94
-7.7%
·
$923
-7.7%
3 months
$24.15
-0.9%
·
$991
-0.9%
6 months
$14.45
+65.7%
·
$1,657
+65.7%
1 year
$22.61
+5.9%
·
$1,059
+5.9%
2 years
$69.59
-65.6%
·
$344
-65.6%
3 years
$68.30
-65.0%
·
$351
-65.0%
5 years
$67.80
-64.7%
·
$353
-64.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ACHC does next, these words stay.
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. · ACHC · Markup · $34.50
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
