Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. holds its Markdown at $30.58. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 27 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 27 days
Price at the screen
$30.58
Valuation
N/A trailing · 16.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.64
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.84%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Behavioral Health Operator Priced Well Beyond Its Worth
Picture a patient checking into one of the acute psychiatric wards this company runs across the US and Puerto Rico. The service meets a clear need, yet the numbers tell a harsher story. Shares sit at $34.50 against our fair value of $27.45, giving a negative margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. Forward earnings sit at 19.6 times while revenue edges up only 8 percent and both profit margin and return on equity remain deeply negative.
We pass because the current price already bakes in optimism the business has not delivered. Losses of 33 percent on the bottom line and a 41 percent negative return on equity point to structural pressure rather than temporary noise. Analyst consensus leans buy with a $32 median target, yet that still leaves the stock expensive relative to the cash it actually generates.
Currency and reimbursement risk in behavioural care can swing results fast, and negative margins leave little room for error. The ethical screen clears, which removes one objection, but the valuation gap and weak returns keep us on the sidelines. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ACHC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Distribution$31.53-8.6%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-20Distribution$34.50+40.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 40.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-18Distribution$24.60+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-16Distribution$24.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-03Distribution$24.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$24.60Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
