An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · National HealthCare Corporation engages in the operation of services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $215.54
National HealthCare Corporation holds its Markup at $215.54.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-07
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days
Price
$215.54
Valuation
27.35 trailing · 501.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.64
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$215.54
27.35 P/E · 501.26 fwd
Our fair value
$107.77
50% premium
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$215.54
you are here
Conservative
$107.77
-50%
Our fair value
$107.77
-50%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Revenue growth
2.20%
Profit margin
8.10%
Debt to equity
3.59
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 5.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 15.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Nursing Home Operator Priced Far Beyond Reality
Picture an elderly resident moving into a modest care home while the bill for the whole chain gets paid at double the fair value. National HealthCare runs inpatient facilities and home hospice services across the United States, yet the market prices it like a high-growth superstar despite 2 percent revenue growth and an 8 percent profit margin.
The numbers give no support for that optimism. A forward multiple of 530 times earnings sits miles above any reasonable return on equity of 12 percent, and our fair value sits at half the current price. The ethical screen clears, but valuation alone removes any investment case.
Low single-digit growth in a mature sector rarely justifies such extremes, and any slip in occupancy or reimbursement rates would expose the gap quickly. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
NHC trades on NYSE American. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 89%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. Entered 2026-08-06 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-06Markup$228.16+15.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 89%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%.
2026-07-18Markup$197.72+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 89%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%.
2026-07-03Markup$197.72+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$197.72Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$189.75
+1.8%
·
$1,018
+1.8%
2 months
$170.85
+13.1%
·
$1,131
+13.1%
3 months
$155.27
+24.4%
$0.64
$1,248
+24.8%
6 months
$136.57
+41.5%
$1.28
$1,424
+42.4%
1 year
$102.33
+88.8%
$2.56
$1,913
+91.3%
2 years
$97.98
+97.2%
$5.00
$2,023
+102.3%
3 years
$57.32
+237.0%
$7.36
$3,499
+249.9%
5 years
$63.69
+203.3%
$11.78
$3,218
+221.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever NHC does next, these words stay.
National HealthCare Corporation · NHC · Markup · $215.54
Recorded 2026-08-07 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
