Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.07, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price42.15 USD
Fair value40.40
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation34.77+21.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-08-25Read Markup34.06+23.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 21% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation28.13+49.8% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $42.15. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$42.15
Valuation
28.10 trailing · 23.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
73.56%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 73.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.82%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Concentra Group Holdings Parent,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 74% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $40.40 fair value estimate, 10.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.3% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $40.40, with a range of $36.00 to $49.14, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Occupational health clinics leave little room to win
Picture a factory worker limping into an onsite clinic after a shift injury. Concentra handles the paperwork and treatment for thousands of those cases every day across its centres and employer clinics. Revenue is rising 14 percent and return on equity hits 47 percent, yet the shares sit only 13 percent below our fair value while analysts cluster around a 34 dollar median target.
We pass because the margin of safety is modest, the forward multiple of 18.7 times offers no obvious discount, and the moat remains unknown in a market full of regional competitors and shifting reimbursement rules. Strong profit margins of 8 percent help, and the ethical screen clears, but none of that creates a compelling edge at current levels.
Currency or regulatory shocks in workers compensation could compress those returns quickly, and without a visible competitive barrier the business risks becoming a steady but unremarkable utility. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CON trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$43.56+8.5%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$40.15-0.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$40.38+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$40.38+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$40.38-2.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$41.25+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$41.25+5.1%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$39.25+1.3%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$38.76+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-10-21Accumulation$38.76+4.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 51% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $32.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.