NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 05:00 UTC
The Screen · Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Brookdale Senior Living Inc.
BKD · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.8B · 22,440 employees
Brookdale Senior Living Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
11.85 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 05:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. holds its Markdown at $11.85. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$11.85
Valuation
N/A trailing · 98.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
92.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 92.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.83%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.39%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +54% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Senior Living Operator Bleeding Cash at Premium Price
Picture an industry built on the steady needs of an ageing population, yet Brookdale is shrinking revenue 7% a year while posting a 7% loss margin and negative 437% return on equity. The shares trade at 73 times forward earnings, 46% above our fair value, and the opportunity rating sits at none despite the ethical screen clearing.
The business owns and runs independent living, assisted living and continuing care sites across the United States, but weak occupancy and cost pressures have left it unable to convert demand into profit. Analyst targets sit higher at 19 dollars, yet those forecasts ignore the structural margin damage already visible in the accounts.
High fixed costs in care homes amplify any revenue dip, and further occupancy shortfalls or rising labour expenses could widen losses quickly. Valuation already prices in a recovery that the current numbers do not support.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BKD trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-23Markdown$15.01+11.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Markdown$13.43+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Markdown$13.43+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$13.43Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
