Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.40, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price39.01 USD
Fair value65.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Accumulation38.01+2.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-13Read Markup37.55+3.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 12% rise in 11 days
2026-10-02Read Distribution33.55+16.3% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-09-24Read Markdown33.55+16.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Astrana Health, Inc. holds its Markdown at $39.01. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 37 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 37 days
Price at the screen
$39.01
Valuation
47.00 trailing · 10.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
36.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 36.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.38%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Astrana Health,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 49% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 40% discount to our $65.00 fair value, 48.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 40.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $65.00, with a range of $60.01 to $78.02, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fast revenue growth but razor thin returns
Picture families relying on care coordinators to link clinics, payments and follow ups across an entire network. Astrana Health posts 56% revenue growth and clears the ethical screen at a forward P/E of 13.1x, yet it delivers only 1% profit margins and 6% ROE. Those capital returns earn an opportunity rating of none, so we pass even with the price sitting below our fair value of 62.50.
Nine analysts rate the shares strong buy with a median target of 50. The three operating segments sound busy, but unknown moat and single digit returns on equity leave little cushion once reimbursement rates or patient volumes normalise.
Low margins in medical services often signal reimbursement pressure rather than scale advantages. Any slowdown in the current growth spurt would quickly expose how little the business earns on the capital it employs. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ASTH trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$39.67+8.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$36.73+0.5%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$36.53+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$36.53+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$36.53-0.4%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$36.67+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$36.67+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$36.67-3.5%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-10-20Markup$38.03+1.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
