Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
37.70 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-16
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Astrana Health, Inc. holds its Markdown at $37.70. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$37.70
Valuation
45.98 trailing · 10.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
36.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 36.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.38%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 72.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +41% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fast revenue growth but razor thin returns
Picture families relying on care coordinators to link clinics, payments and follow ups across an entire network. Astrana Health posts 56% revenue growth and clears the ethical screen at a forward P/E of 13.1x, yet it delivers only 1% profit margins and 6% ROE. Those capital returns earn an opportunity rating of none, so we pass even with the price sitting below our fair value of 62.50.
Nine analysts rate the shares strong buy with a median target of 50. The three operating segments sound busy, but unknown moat and single digit returns on equity leave little cushion once reimbursement rates or patient volumes normalise.
Low margins in medical services often signal reimbursement pressure rather than scale advantages. Any slowdown in the current growth spurt would quickly expose how little the business earns on the capital it employs. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ASTH trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 20.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-22Accumulation$44.94+16.4%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 16.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-18Accumulation$38.62+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-03Accumulation$38.62+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$38.62Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
