AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts · NYQ
$50.60
Close 2026-05-19
✗ ETHICAL FAIL
WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$3.1B
Trailing P/E
44.78
Forward P/E
12.84
Rev Growth
-1.2%
Profit Margin
0.5%
ROE
3.1%
Analyst Target
$60.37
Recommendation
HOLD
Ethical Screen
| Business Activity | PASS |
| Debt Ratio (1.85%) | FAIL |
| Cash Ratio (1.02%) | FAIL |
| Receivables Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Revenue Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Overall | FAIL |
Score Valuation: 77.5
Score Quality: 33.2
Score Combined: 48.2
Fair Value Est: $59.13 · Margin of Safety: +16.9% · Tier: AVOID
Opportunity Scores
Valuation70.3
Quality5.9
Cash Flow50.0
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet0.0
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity0.0
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance29.4
Tier: BRONZE · Score: 45.5 · Rank: #3025
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
| Date | EPS Est. | Reported EPS | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | 0.81 | Pending | -- |
| 2026-05-21 | 0.44 | 0.77 | +75.6% |
| 2026-02-13 | 0.41 | 0.86 | +109.3% |
| 2025-10-30 | 0.74 | 0.92 | +23.5% |
| 2025-08-14 | 0.58 | 0.69 | +18.3% |
| 2025-05-22 | -0.69 | -0.22 | +68.1% |
| 2025-02-26 | -1.23 | -1.18 | +4.2% |
| 2024-11-14 | 0.44 | -0.04 | -109.1% |
Quarterly Financials
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | EBITDA | Gross Profit | Op. Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.40 |
| 2026-03-31 | $2.6B | $24.0M | $174.0M | $1.2B | $101.0M | 0.40 |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.0B | $6.0M | $132.0M | $869.0M | $68.0M | 0.10 |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.0B | -$1.0M | $106.0M | $881.0M | $55.0M | -0.02 |
| 2025-06-30 | $2.0B | $15.0M | $97.0M | $874.0M | $51.0M | 0.25 |
| 2025-03-31 | $2.6B | $24.0M | -$15.0M | $1.1B | -$13.0M | — |
Insider Transactions
| Date | Name | Role | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | LEE EUGENE I JR | Director | 346 | $20.1K |
| 2026-04-24 | WINDOM BRENT | Director | 27 | $1.6K |
| 2026-04-24 | SEBOLDT THOMAS W. | Director | 24 | $1.5K |
| 2026-04-24 | SEBOLDT THOMAS W. | Director | 28 | $1.7K |
| 2026-04-24 | BAILO CARLA JEAN | Director | 48 | $2.8K |
| 2026-04-24 | FERRARO JOHN FRANCIS | Director | 99 | $5.8K |
| 2026-04-24 | HILSON JOAN M | Director | 41 | $2.4K |
| 2026-04-24 | SMITH GREGORY L | Director | 27 | $1.6K |
| 2026-02-17 | OKELLY SHANE M | Chief Executive Officer | 61,685 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-17 | GRIMSLAND RYAN P. | Chief Financial Officer | 16,744 | $950.1K |
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | Value | % Held |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 8.9M | $517.3M | 0.1% |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 8.0M | $462.7M | 0.1% |
| Pzena Investment Management LLC | 4.3M | $249.2M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 3.6M | $209.8M | 0.1% |
| Federated Hermes, Inc. | 3.0M | $176.3M | 0.1% |
| Fuller & Thaler Asset Management Inc. | 2.8M | $163.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 2.7M | $156.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street Corporation | 2.4M | $141.1M | 0.0% |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 2.1M | $123.3M | 0.0% |
| American Century Companies Inc | 1.7M | $100.1M | 0.0% |
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
25 analysts
2 Months Ago
26 analysts
Last Month
27 analysts
Current
25 analysts
Strong Buy
Buy
Hold
Sell
Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$6.2B
$6.2B
Price/Book
1.58
1.58
Beta
1.080
1.080
Analysts
19
19
Total Revenue (TTM)
$8.6B
$8.6B
Total Debt
$5.6B
$5.6B
Earnings Growth
-2.5%
-2.5%
Dividend Yield
198.0%
198.0%
Rec. Mean
3.00
3.00
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 48.2 (P69 — top 30.6% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical FAIL. 19 analysts at Hold.
Price: $50.60 | Target: $60.37 (+19%) | Fair Value: $59.13 (+17%)
Score
48
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+19%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth-1.2%
Profit Margin0.5%
ROE3.1%
Forward P/E12.8
Market Cap$3.1B
Earnings Track Record
| Date | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | $0.81 | Pending | — |
| 2026-05-21 | $0.44 | $0.77 | +75.6% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.41 | $0.86 | +109.3% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.74 | $0.92 | +23.5% |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.58 | $0.69 | +18.3% |
| 2025-05-22 | $-0.69 | $-0.22 | +68.1% |
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $43.01 (-15%) | Entry: $50.60
| Shares | Cost | Profit to Target | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Consensus ($60.37, 19 analysts) | |||
| 10 | $506.00 | +$97.70 (19%) | 1.3R |
| 50 | $2,530.00 | +$488.50 (19%) | 1.3R |
| 100 | $5,060.00 | +$977.00 (19%) | 1.3R |
| To Fair Value ($59.13) | |||
| 10 | $506.00 | +$85.30 (17%) | 1.1R |
| 50 | $2,530.00 | +$426.50 (17%) | 1.1R |
| 100 | $5,060.00 | +$853.00 (17%) | 1.1R |
Risk Factors
- No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. holds a weak competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade
A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.
B
Quant Score
57.5
Risk Grade
—
Layers
8
Quality: STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile
How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.
VaR 95%
-5.6%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-8.7%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
—
Sortino Ratio
-0.24
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-56.4%
Worst Day
—
Forward Outlook
Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.
30d Prob Up
—
90d Prob Up
—
Median Return 30d
—
Liquidity Score
62
Liquidity Grade
LIQUID
Trend & Momentum
What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?
Kalman Trend
—
Trend Strength
—
Momentum Signal
—
HMM Regime
—
RSI Signal
—
Technical Signals
Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.
MA Crossover
GOLDEN_CROSS
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
—
Relative Volume
—
Short Interest
—
Financial Health
Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.
Altman Z-Score
—
—
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
—
Earnings Beat Rate
75.0%
Earnings Consistency
—
Correlations
These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.
Most Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| 2250.SR | 0.508 |
| GPC | 0.427 |
| URBN | 0.409 |
| BC | 0.407 |
| VVV | 0.381 |
Inverse Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| LPTVQ | -0.208 |
| QCFS.QA | -0.175 |
| AFIB | -0.172 |
| KFIMA.KL | -0.148 |
| FRCB | -0.134 |
Seasonality
Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.
Best Day
Monday
Worst Day
Friday
Best Month
May
Worst Month
Oct
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.8067376967845298
Earnings Drift
After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.
Avg Drift After Beat
+1.1%
Beat Drift Positive %
83.3%
Consistency
—
Momentum Rankings
How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.
1M Return
-5.2%
3M Return
+3.0%
6M Return
+15.2%
12M Return
+14.3%
Momentum Rank
#2245
Momentum Signal
FLAT