An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $53.16
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. holds its Markup at $53.16.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 232 days
Price
$53.16
Valuation
47.46 trailing · 13.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.05
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 32% discount to our $70.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 1.20% revenue growth.
Read at
$53.16
47.46 P/E · 13.26 fwd
Our fair value
$70.00
32% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$61.00
+15% to current
Target low $35.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $70.00
▲ current $53.16 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$53.16
you are here
Conservative
$66.15
+24%
Analyst avg
$61.00
+15%
Our fair value
$70.00
+32%
Analyst high
$70.00
+32%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
1.20%
Profit margin
0.51%
Debt to equity
255.31
Analyst consensus
Hold · 19 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 185.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are 102.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Car parts chain buried by debt and weak returns
Walk into any Advance Auto Parts store and the shelves look stocked, yet behind the counter the business is barely turning a profit. Revenue edges up just 1 percent while net margins sit at 1 percent and return on equity is a paltry 3 percent. The forward multiple of 13.3 times earnings looks tempting for a cyclical name, but the weak moat and tiny growth tell us this is not a bargain, it is a trap. We pass.
The company also fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio, adding another clear reason to stay away. Nineteen analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target of 61 dollars, well short of any real recovery story. Low returns, thin margins and a consumer cyclical label point to earnings that could fall quickly when car owners delay repairs.
Risk sits in the combination of high leverage, minimal profitability and exposure to discretionary spending that can vanish in a slowdown. The 32 percent gap to our fair value number does not change the picture when the underlying business shows no sign of improvement. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AAP trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60. Entered 2026-07-20 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Markup$53.16-6.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Markup$56.81+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-16Markup$56.81+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Markup$56.81+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$56.81Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
