NAS10028,385−3.46%S&P7,580−1.82%GOLD$3,899−3.29%BTC$77,887+0.58%VIX19.42+12.91%latest tape · as of 16:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.
MFG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $120.6B · 52,427 employees
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
9.66 USD
Price as of 30 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-30 · the tape above runs as of 16:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price9.66 USD
Fair value13.07
Ethical score30.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markdown10.22-5.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution11.07-12.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 14% rise in 14 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup9.68-0.2% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $9.66. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$9.66
Valuation
13.68 trailing · 7.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
138.60%
Below 5%
138.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Mizuho Financial Group, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MFG's ethical verdict changes
Today MFG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $13.07 fair value, weak competitive moat, 35.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $13.07, with a range of $13.07 to $19.32, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
A Japanese Banking Giant with Ethical Stains
Imagine a financial juggernaut that stands tall in Japan yet carries a tarnished ethical shield - this is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., a conglomerate with fingers in multiple financial pies including banking, trust banking, and securities. Despite robust revenue growth of 35%, it's the ethical failures that outshine the numbers, failing our ethical screen due to its business activities. Why it stands out is its ability to grow revenue amidst challenges, yet it's the ethical missteps that cast a shadow.
However, the numbers tell a cautious tale. A forward P/E of 7.3x is enticing, but with a weak moat, a profit margin of 29%, and an ROE of 12%, the value proposition is not as solid as it might initially appear. Mizuho's profitability is respectable, but the weak moat suggests a vulnerability in maintaining its competitive edge, which is a significant risk to consider.
Given the ethical failings, we're steering clear of Mizuho, despite its financial performance. The market seems to offer a glimpse of hope with a price of $10.13 and our fair value of $12.06, suggesting a margin of safety of +19%. Yet, the ethical red flags are too glaring to ignore. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MFG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$9.66-5.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-10-25Markdown$10.22+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$10.22-7.7%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-10-02Markup$11.07+9.3%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-08-30Markup$10.13-4.7%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-30Markup$10.63+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$10.63+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$10.63+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$10.63+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
