An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests.
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $14.31
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. holds its Accumulation at $14.31.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 296 days
Price
$14.31
Valuation
11.27 trailing · 12.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.02
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$14.31
11.27 P/E · 12.23 fwd
Our fair value
$12.94
10% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$16.00
+12% to current
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$14.31
you are here
Conservative
$12.94
-10%
Analyst avg
$16.00
+12%
Our fair value
$12.94
-10%
Analyst high
$16.00
+12%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
8.50%
Profit margin
72.47%
Debt to equity
17.42
Analyst consensus
Hold · 1 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Oil royalty cheques look steady until prices crash
Picture a landowner in Texas who never lifts a drill yet still gets a cut every time someone else pulls oil or gas from the ground. Black Stone Minerals does exactly that across millions of acres, generating 72% profit margins and 28% returns on equity with revenue up 8%. Those numbers look attractive on paper and the ethical screen is clear, yet we pass because this remains a pure cyclical bet on energy prices that can swing hard in either direction.
The forward multiple sits at 12.2 times earnings, which feels reasonable until you remember that peak-cycle profits often make the same multiple look expensive a year later. The current price already sits above our fair value and the single analyst note is a hold, so nothing here screams overlooked value.
Energy markets remain hostage to geopolitics, OPEC moves and demand shocks that can crush royalties overnight. Low multiples in this sector are usually a warning, not a bargain, even when the business itself clears basic ethical checks. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
BSM trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. Entered 2026-07-23 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-23Markup · changed$14.31+2.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-18Distribution$13.97+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-03Distribution$13.97+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$13.97Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$13.38
+4.0%
·
$1,040
+4.0%
2 months
$13.76
+1.1%
$0.30
$1,033
+3.3%
3 months
$14.96
-7.0%
$0.30
$950
-5.0%
6 months
$13.90
+0.2%
$0.60
$1,045
+4.5%
1 year
$12.56
+10.8%
$1.20
$1,204
+20.4%
2 years
$13.36
+4.2%
$2.70
$1,244
+24.4%
3 years
$11.92
+16.7%
$4.50
$1,545
+54.5%
5 years
$6.32
+120.3%
$7.49
$3,388
+238.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BSM does next, these words stay.
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. · BSM · Accumulation · $14.31
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
