The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
UGI Corporation
UGI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.1B · 9,400 employees
UGI Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of energy products and related services in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
37.99 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
UGI Corporation holds its Markup at $37.99. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$37.99
Valuation
12.62 trailing · 11.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.96
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.16%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas bills flow but growth barely moves
Every winter the pipes deliver heat to homes across the states, yet UGI shows revenue edging up just 1 percent a year. The shares trade at 11 times forward earnings with a 9 percent profit margin and 12 percent return on equity, numbers that look tidy until the cyclical nature of energy demand is remembered. Fair value sits almost exactly at the current price, leaving no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none.
The ethical screen clears without issue, and three analysts still carry a buy rating with a higher target. Those surface attractions fade once peak-cycle earnings and the regulated gas exposure are weighed together. Low multiples in this sector often mark the top of the earnings cycle rather than a bargain entry point.
Currency swings, volume weather risk and the threat of rate resets can all compress returns quickly. Investors chasing the multiple here risk catching a value trap dressed as value. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UGI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-15Markdown · changed$34.28-2.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-18Distribution$35.03+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-03Distribution$35.03+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$35.03Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.