TRN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.4B · 6,110 employees
Trinity Industries, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
29.51 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-26
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Trinity Industries, Inc. holds its Markdown at $29.51. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$29.51
Valuation
6.98 trailing · 13.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
64.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 64.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.01%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.5% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Railcars still roll but Trinity trades too dear
Picture a freight train rumbling across the plains, carrying grain and chemicals in cars built and leased by Trinity. The company keeps the wheels turning in a steady North American market and clears an ethical screen without issue, yet revenue has fallen 16 percent while shares sit 22 percent above our fair value. A 15.4 times forward earnings multiple on a 12 percent profit margin offers no real bargain once the cyclical rail cycle is considered.
The leasing and manufacturing segments generate a respectable 23 percent return on equity, but that return sits atop a business whose top line is shrinking and whose moat remains unclear. Two analysts see little upside from here, with a median target matching the current price and no consensus rating to lean on.
Risks centre on North American industrial volumes and the danger that peak-cycle earnings are already in the past, leaving the multiple looking less attractive than it first appears. Any sustained slowdown in rail traffic would quickly expose the lack of growth. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TRN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-07-18Markup$34.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-07-03Markup$34.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$34.76Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
