Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.72, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.54 USD
Fair value25.17
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Markdown29.51-13.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-08-15Read Distribution29.90-14.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 14% slide in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup34.76-26.5% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Trinity Industries, Inc. holds its Markdown at $25.54. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$25.54
Valuation
5.92 trailing · 11.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
64.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 64.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.01%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Trinity Industries,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 65% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today TRN does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Railcars still roll but Trinity trades too dear
Picture a freight train rumbling across the plains, carrying grain and chemicals in cars built and leased by Trinity. The company keeps the wheels turning in a steady North American market and clears an ethical screen without issue, yet revenue has fallen 16 percent while shares sit 22 percent above our fair value. A 15.4 times forward earnings multiple on a 12 percent profit margin offers no real bargain once the cyclical rail cycle is considered.
The leasing and manufacturing segments generate a respectable 23 percent return on equity, but that return sits atop a business whose top line is shrinking and whose moat remains unclear. Two analysts see little upside from here, with a median target matching the current price and no consensus rating to lean on.
Risks centre on North American industrial volumes and the danger that peak-cycle earnings are already in the past, leaving the multiple looking less attractive than it first appears. Any sustained slowdown in rail traffic would quickly expose the lack of growth. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TRN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$25.23+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$25.23+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$25.23+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$25.23+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$25.23+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$25.23+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$25.23-3.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$26.13-6.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-10-02Markdown$28.00-5.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$29.51-1.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $36.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
