The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Spire Inc.
SR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.7B · 3,497 employees
Spire Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the purchase, retail distribution, and sale of natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and other end-users of natural gas in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
80.20 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Spire Inc. holds its Markdown at $80.20. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$80.20
Valuation
17.70 trailing · 14.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas bills arrive but value stays elusive
Picture a utility that simply pipes natural gas to homes and factories month after month. Spire does exactly that, yet the shares sit 13 percent above our fair value with no margin of safety at the current price. Revenue edges up only 4 percent a year, the return on equity is a modest 9 percent, and the forward multiple of 14.7 times earnings offers little cushion once the cycle turns.
We pass because the business sits in a cyclical industry where low multiples often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain. The ethical screen is cleared, yet that alone does not create an opportunity when growth is thin and returns remain ordinary. Analyst targets sit higher, but those views ignore how regulated returns compress when interest rates or input costs shift.
The real risk is that investors treat steady cash flows as permanent while earnings prove more elastic than the multiple implies. A regulated franchise can still disappoint when volumes or allowed rates move against it. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-13Markdown · changed$80.20-0.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99.
2026-07-18Distribution$79.10+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99.
2026-07-03Distribution$79.10+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$79.10Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.