Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.39, read 2026-10-21
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price6.47 USD
Fair value8.73
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-24Read Markdown7.36-12.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 21% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-06Read Markup9.32-30.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after an 80% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-06Read Distribution5.18+24.9% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 30% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup7.44-13.0% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NovaGold Resources Inc. holds its Markdown at $6.47. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-20
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$6.47
Valuation
N/A trailing · -32.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
32.81%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 32.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NovaGold Resources's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 50% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-24. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today NG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-20 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +102% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-20 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold project burns cash with no profits in sight
Picture a developer sitting on one of North America's largest undeveloped gold deposits yet still posting zero profit margins and a negative 25 percent return on equity. NovaGold Resources shows a forward price to earnings ratio of negative 21.5 times and carries an unknown moat, so the numbers offer no reason to step in. The opportunity rating stays at none and the ethical screen returns insufficient data.
Gold mining sits squarely in a cyclical industry where low or negative multiples often mark peak earnings rather than bargains. Current losses and missing financial detail make any apparent discount look more like a warning than an opening. Analyst targets sit far above the current price but we ignore those calls when the underlying figures fail basic tests.
Currency swings, permitting delays and gold price swings add further layers of risk on top of the data gaps. We pass. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NG trades on NYSE American (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-23Markdown$6.47+3.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-16Markdown$6.23-15.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-02Markdown$7.36+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-24Markdown · changed$7.36-21.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 21.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markup · changed$9.32+79.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 79.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 30.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Markup$7.44+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Markup$7.44+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$7.44Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
