The Screen · Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Herc Holdings Inc.
HRI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.7B · 9,700 employees
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
140.96 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Herc Holdings Inc. holds its Markdown at $140.96. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$140.96
Valuation
82.92 trailing · 13.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.87
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
70.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 70.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Equipment rentals boom but profits stay flat
Picture a building site where every digger and lift arrives from the same rental yard. Herc has delivered 32% revenue growth by meeting that demand, yet the business reports zero profit margins and zero return on equity. The market prices the shares at 15.2 times forward earnings with a buy rating from analysts, but those figures mask a company that is not yet converting sales into real earnings.
We therefore pass. The ethical screen is clear and the shares sit below the stated fair value, yet unknown competitive position plus flat profitability leave no durable edge to underwrite. Cyclical exposure in construction and infrastructure adds further uncertainty that a low multiple alone cannot offset.
Peak-cycle revenue can look attractive until demand slows and margins stay pinned at zero. The risk is paying for growth that never reaches the bottom line. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HRI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Accumulation$156.09+4.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169.
2026-07-18Markup$144.62+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169.
2026-07-03Markup$144.62+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$144.62Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
