The Screen · Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Custom Truck One Source, Inc.
CTOS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.2B · 2,500 employees
Custom Truck One Source, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
9.59 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-26
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. holds its Markdown at $9.59. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$9.59
Valuation
106.56 trailing · 30.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
70.25%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 70.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 0.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +36% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Utility truck rentals look busy but numbers do not add up
Picture fleets of specialised rigs moving power lines and telecom towers across North America. The work sounds essential, yet Custom Truck One Source still posts negative profit margins and a negative return on equity while trading at 37 times forward earnings. Revenue edges up 9 percent, but that growth has not reached the bottom line and the shares sit 25 percent above our fair value.
We pass because the valuation already prices in perfection that the current returns simply do not support. Analyst targets cluster around 12 dollars and the ethical screen clears, yet neither fact changes the gap between price and underlying cash generation. An unknown moat leaves little room for error if competition or customer spending slows.
The main risks sit in the thin margins and the premium multiple, both of which could compress quickly if utilisation dips or interest costs stay high. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CTOS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-25Markup$10.34-3.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-18Markup$10.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-03Markup$10.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$10.66Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
