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The Screen · Technology · Computer Hardware
Seagate Technology
STX · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $157.1B · 30,000 employees
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
630.49 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 18:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price630.49 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingAvoid, current read distribution
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans slightly to calls (put/call 0.74)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 630.49 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 1,308.84, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.74, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price630.49 USD
Fair value1,308.84
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Distribution916.83-31.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% rise in 14 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup847.47-25.6% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Seagate Technology holds its Distribution at $630.49. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 228 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 228 days
Price at the screen
$630.49
Valuation
52.06 trailing · 12.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
2.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.26%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.27%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Seagate Technology's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 62% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today STX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 90% discount to our $1,308.84 fair value, strong competitive moat, 48.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 89.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +82% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Data Storage Giant with a Heavy Debt Load
When you think of data storage, Seagate's name often comes up. It's a staple in a world where every bit of information needs a place to live. Picture a digital skyscraper, Seagate is building the floors. Why it stands out? The company's revenue is growing at a robust 48% clip, and profitability, indicated by a 26% profit margin and a 372% return on equity, is impressive. The valuation looks tempting too, with the stock trading at a forward P/E of 15.4x, below our fair value of $1294.83, presenting a significant margin of safety at +52%.
However, despite this apparent value, the market consensus is a strong buy with a median target of $1150, which is still below our fair value. The risk here is clear and significant - Seagate fails our ethical screen due to a concerning debt ratio. In the tech world, where balance sheets can often be leveraged to fund growth, Seagate’s debt levels are a red flag, suggesting a potential instability that could overshadow its operational strengths.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Singapore and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STX trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Singapore). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Distribution$690.81+0.0%Entry 23
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$690.81+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$690.81+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$690.81+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$690.81+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$690.81+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$690.81+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$690.81+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$690.81-24.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 24.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 138% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 546%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 55%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $815.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
