Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. holds its Markup at $62.50. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 75 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 75 days
Price at the screen
$62.50
Valuation
71.02 trailing · 19.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $55.18 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 21.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas services name trades rich on thin returns
Picture a contractor whose vans sit idle half the year when drilling slows. Kodiak Gas Services sits in exactly that spot. Revenue edges up just 5 percent, margins sit at 5 percent and return on equity matches at 5 percent, yet the shares price well above our fair value with a forward multiple of 21.8 times. The weak moat and ethical screen failure on debt ratio close the case for us.
We pass because the business offers little durable advantage in a sector where customers can switch providers when prices turn. Low growth and thin profitability leave scant room for error once energy volumes soften.
Cyclical earnings peaks often produce low multiples that later prove expensive once the cycle rolls over. Add the debt burden that already fails our screen and the setup becomes unattractive regardless of what sell-side notes say. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KGS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Markup · changed$59.18+1.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-18Markup$65.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-03Markup$65.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$65.11Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
