Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 4.52, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price44.31 USD
Fair value54.40
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Distribution47.16-6.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 7 days
2026-10-14Read Markdown53.47-17.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Distribution51.75-14.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-03Read Markup59.18-25.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. holds its Distribution at $44.31. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 27 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 27 days
Price at the screen
$44.31
Valuation
54.84 trailing · 14.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Kodiak Gas Services,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 37% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $54.40 fair value, weak competitive moat, 21.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +85% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas services name trades rich on thin returns
Picture a contractor whose vans sit idle half the year when drilling slows. Kodiak Gas Services sits in exactly that spot. Revenue edges up just 5 percent, margins sit at 5 percent and return on equity matches at 5 percent, yet the shares price well above our fair value with a forward multiple of 21.8 times. The weak moat and ethical screen failure on debt ratio close the case for us.
We pass because the business offers little durable advantage in a sector where customers can switch providers when prices turn. Low growth and thin profitability leave scant room for error once energy volumes soften.
Cyclical earnings peaks often produce low multiples that later prove expensive once the cycle rolls over. Add the debt burden that already fails our screen and the setup becomes unattractive regardless of what sell-side notes say. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KGS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Distribution$47.16+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$47.16+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-10-14Markdown · changed$53.47+3.3%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-09-03Markup · changed$59.18+1.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-18Markup$65.11+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-03Markup$65.11+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$65.11Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
