Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 9.09, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price45.61 USD
Fair value36.90
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown48.23-5.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-31Read Accumulation51.41-11.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-31Read Markdown49.65-8.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-07-02Read Distribution50.67-10.0% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Golar LNG Limited holds its Markdown at $45.61. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 330 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 330 days
Price at the screen
$45.61
Valuation
30.72 trailing · 71.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.12
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.84%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
20.15%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 20.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
9.64%
Below 5%
9.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Golar LNG's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today GLNG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $36.90 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 72.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +50% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
LNG booms often mask the debt trap
Imagine a gas tanker riding a sudden wave of demand only to hit a debt wall when prices turn. Golar LNG finds itself in that position, with revenue up 120% yet trading at a 46 times forward multiple well above our fair value of $36.53 against the current $49.65 price.
We pass because the 30% profit margin and 9% ROE sit alongside a weak moat and an ethical screen failure on debt levels. Cyclical energy names often flash high growth right at peak earnings, turning what looks like momentum into a classic value trap rather than a durable opportunity.
Analyst targets may point higher, yet the combination of elevated valuation, thin returns and leverage creates real downside when the cycle shifts. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GLNG trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$44.85+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-10-21Markdown$44.85-6.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-10-14Markdown$47.92-0.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$48.23-6.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-31Markdown · changed$49.65-2.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Distribution$50.67+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Distribution$50.67+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$50.67Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
