Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream infrastructure systems in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
27.99 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. holds its Accumulation at $27.99. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 271 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 271 days
Price at the screen
$27.99
Valuation
79.97 trailing · 13.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.56%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.05%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pipelines look cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a truck driver hauling crude across the plains. When volumes surge the fees roll in, yet when the wells slow the fixed pipes sit half empty and margins collapse to zero. Plains GP Holdings sits in exactly that spot today, with a forward multiple of 11.7 times but no real profit margin and return on equity stuck at 9 percent. The market prices it like a bargain, yet our fair value sits 16 percent below the current quote, so the cheap headline is an illusion.
Revenue is growing at 9 percent, and the ethical screen clears, yet this remains a classic cyclical value trap. Low multiples at the top of an energy cycle often signal peak earnings rather than a durable entry point. Fourteen analysts still lean buy with a median target near the current price, but that consensus ignores how quickly midstream cash flows can swing when oil prices or drilling budgets shift.
The real risk lies in volume exposure and thin returns that leave little cushion when the next downturn arrives. Investors chasing the multiple may simply be buying yesterday's peak earnings at a discount that never materialises. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PAGP trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Accumulation$27.16+7.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-18Markup$24.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Markup$24.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$24.38Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
