Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. holds its Distribution at $133.36. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$133.36
Valuation
14.74 trailing · 9.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.99%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
6.64%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 59.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Debt screen blocks sporting goods retailer
Think of a shopper piling gear into a trolley at peak season only to watch the store's own bills mount faster than sales. Dick's shows 63 percent revenue growth, 21 percent ROE and a moderate moat, yet we pass because the ethical screen flags its debt ratio as unacceptable.
The forward multiple of 13.3 times looks tempting next to a $300 fair value, and twenty-two analysts lean buy. None of that matters once the balance sheet raises red flags that our screen is built to catch.
Consumer cyclical exposure adds the usual warning that peak earnings can shrink quickly and leave a low multiple looking expensive after the fact. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DKS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Distribution$183.23+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$183.23+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$183.23+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Distribution$183.23-8.5%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Distribution$200.32+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Distribution$200.32+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-19Distribution$200.32+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$217.36+1.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240.
2026-07-18Markup$214.83+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $240.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
