Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-24
Options put/call open interest 0.72, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price371.63 USD
Fair value338.56
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markup352.79+5.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation333.37+11.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-02Read Markdown333.37+11.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-08-28Read Distribution342.87+8.4% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Chubb Limited holds its Markup at $371.63. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 76 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 76 days
Price at the screen
$371.63
Valuation
12.70 trailing · 12.30 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Chubb does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $338.56 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 1.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.8% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $338.56, with a range of $282.60 to $389.34, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it is worth knowing
A quality business: a moderate moat and 18% profit margins. At the screened price it sits 10% above our $338.56 fair value: priced for the quality, not a bargain.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CB trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup$364.12+3.2%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $373. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-25Markup · changed$352.79+0.0%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $371. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$352.79+5.8%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $367. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $367. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$333.37-2.8%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-28Markup$359.75+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$359.75+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$359.75+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup · changed$359.75+2.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.