VICI · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $27.8B · 28 employees
VICI Properties Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
25.21 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Vici Properties holds its Markdown at $25.21. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$25.21
Valuation
9.77 trailing · 8.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.68
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.10%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.21%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.36%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 51% discount to our $38.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 5.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 50.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Casino landlords tempt with cheap multiples
Picture the bright lights of Caesars Palace and the Venetian throwing off steady rents every quarter. Vici owns a stack of market-leading gaming and hospitality assets, yet we pass because it fails our ethical screen on debt.
The numbers show a 77% profit margin and moderate moat, with revenue up 4% and return on equity at 11%. Forward earnings sit at just 9.2 times, and twenty-four analysts rate the shares a buy with a median target well above the current price.
High debt levels trip the ethical screen, and gaming rents remain exposed to economic swings that a low multiple does not erase. The apparent margin of safety looks thinner once those risks are weighed.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VICI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Markup$27.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Markup$27.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$27.86Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
