Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.80, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price23.76 USD
Fair value38.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup23.46+1.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-21Read Distribution23.46+1.3% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-16Read Markdown25.21-5.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-16Read Distribution26.40-10.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 5% slide in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vici Properties holds its Markup at $23.76. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 69 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 69 days
Price at the screen
$23.76
Valuation
9.13 trailing · 7.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.10%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.21%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.36%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Vici Properties's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when VICI's ethical verdict changes
Today VICI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 60% discount to our $38.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 5.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 59.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Casino landlords tempt with cheap multiples
Picture the bright lights of Caesars Palace and the Venetian throwing off steady rents every quarter. Vici owns a stack of market-leading gaming and hospitality assets, yet we pass because it fails our ethical screen on debt.
The numbers show a 77% profit margin and moderate moat, with revenue up 4% and return on equity at 11%. Forward earnings sit at just 9.2 times, and twenty-four analysts rate the shares a buy with a median target well above the current price.
High debt levels trip the ethical screen, and gaming rents remain exposed to economic swings that a low multiple does not erase. The apparent margin of safety looks thinner once those risks are weighed.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VICI trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup$23.46+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$23.46+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$23.46+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$23.46+1.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-10-02Markdown$23.19-8.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $32.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
