Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.74, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.23 USD
Fair value21.25
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Distribution11.55-2.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 24% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-12Read Markdown15.20-26.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-12Read Markup17.10-34.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution15.81-29.0% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Safehold Inc. holds its Distribution at $11.23. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 216 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 216 days
Price at the screen
$11.23
Valuation
8.16 trailing · 7.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.79
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
61.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.03%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.63%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.91%
Below 5%
Only 2.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Safehold's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 62% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when SAFE's ethical verdict changes
Today SAFE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 84.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +51% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ground Leases Look Cheap but Deliver Little
Picture a landlord who owns only the dirt under someone else's tower. That is Safehold in one line. It trades at 9.9 times forward earnings with 12 percent revenue growth and a 27 percent profit margin, yet the market values it right at analyst targets of 17 dollars against a 17.10 dollar price.
The numbers show a 24 percent gap to our fair value and a clean ethical screen. Still the return on equity sits at just 5 percent with no visible moat, which explains why we see no real opportunity here despite the low multiple.
Low returns on equity often signal that growth will stay capital heavy and shareholder rewards thin. Currency or rate shocks in real estate could widen that gap quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SAFE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Distribution$11.55+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$11.55+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-18Markdown$11.55-12.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-02Markdown$13.14-13.6%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$15.20-11.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-12Markup · changed$17.10+8.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.81+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.81+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.81Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
