Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.21 USD
Fair value13.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-02Read Distribution11.80-5.0% to today ✓
2026-08-03Read Markdown14.88-24.7% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution14.72-23.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
JBG SMITH Properties holds its Markdown at $11.21. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$11.21
Valuation
N/A trailing · -7.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 58.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.70%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.84%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
DC Mixed Use Assets Face Persistent Losses
Picture a landlord in the capital's busiest corridors trying to fill offices and apartments while costs keep climbing. JBG SMITH owns and develops those mixed use sites around National Landing yet still posts a negative 22% profit margin and negative 8% return on equity. With revenue up only 6% and a forward multiple of negative 9.1 times, the business is not covering its cost of capital.
The shares sit at 14.88 dollars against a fair value of 15 dollars, giving almost no margin of safety. Two analysts see the same picture and offer no consensus rating. The ethical screen clears, yet the operating record shows consistent losses rather than the steady cash flows a REIT investor would expect.
Real estate cycles can turn quickly and any slowdown in Washington demand would widen those losses further. Thin pricing power and unknown competitive protection leave little room for error. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JBGS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 20.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (2 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-08-03Markdown · changed$14.88+1.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (2 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Distribution$14.72+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (2 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Distribution$14.72+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$14.72Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.