Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price5.01 USD
Fair value3.23
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup4.86+3.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-25Read Accumulation4.86+3.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 17% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markup4.14+21.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 14% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-28Read Distribution4.83+3.7% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 11% slide in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. holds its Markup at $5.01. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days
Price at the screen
$5.01
Valuation
207.00 trailing · 69.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
53.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 53.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.14%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Empire State Realty Trust,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 54% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ESRT does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Empire State Realty Trades Far Above Fair Value
Picture the Empire State Building lighting up the skyline at night. The REIT that owns it still cannot escape a simple fact: the shares sit at 5.77 against a fair value of just 3.34. With revenue growing only 5 percent, a 5 percent profit margin and 3 percent return on equity, the business shows little sign of the earnings power needed to close that gap. We pass.
The forward multiple of 96 times earnings leaves almost no room for the modest growth already priced in. Analysts sit on a hold rating with a 6 dollar median target, yet even that figure sits well above the value our work supports. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers do not.
New York office and multifamily markets remain exposed to remote working trends and rising vacancies. A cyclical downturn could compress cash flows further and widen the gap between price and underlying worth. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ESRT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup$4.86+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$4.86+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$4.86+0.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation · changed$4.86+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-18Markup$4.86+17.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$4.14+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-02Distribution$4.14-14.3%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-28Markup$5.77+6.1%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Markup$5.44+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
