Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.61, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.36 USD
Fair value16.39
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Distribution17.76-2.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown19.28-10.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-23Read Distribution20.93-17.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Accumulation21.07-17.6% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. holds its Distribution at $17.36. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 28 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 28 days
Price at the screen
$17.36
Valuation
23.37 trailing · 26.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.09%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Broadstone Net Lease,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 44% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BNL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +35% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Net Lease Portfolio Priced Far Beyond Its Worth
Picture a landlord locking up single-tenant factories and warehouses on long leases. Broadstone Net Lease does exactly that, yet investors pay $22.80 for every share when our fair value sits at $17.99. Revenue growth of 12 percent and a 27 percent profit margin look steady, but the 28.1 times forward earnings and 4 percent return on equity tell a thinner story, leaving no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none.
We pass because the numbers simply do not add up. A diversified industrial book with unknown competitive edge cannot justify trading at such a premium when capital returns remain this low. Analyst targets around $23 echo the market price, yet they ignore how little cash the business actually generates relative to the capital tied up in the properties.
Real estate cycles can turn quickly, and a high multiple built on modest returns leaves little room for rising rates or tenant stress. Ethical checks clear, yet valuation risk sits front and centre. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BNL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Distribution$17.76+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$17.76+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$17.76+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$17.76+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$17.76+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$17.76+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$17.76-2.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$18.26-5.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$19.28-7.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
