Screened 2026-07-19 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. holds its Distribution at $104.97. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 19 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 19 days
Price at the screen
$104.97
Valuation
23.07 trailing · 17.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-19 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.6% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-19 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lime Maker Looks Steady But Trades Well Above Value
Picture a quarry feeding concrete and steel projects across America. United States Lime & Minerals turns rock into quicklime and limestone products that builders need, yet revenue is already falling four percent and the shares sit fifteen percent above our fair value. Forward earnings sit at eighteen times while the single analyst target floats higher still, but this is a classic cyclical setup where today's margins of thirty five percent and return on equity of twenty two percent can shrink fast once construction slows.
We pass because the business carries no obvious moat and sits squarely in a sector prone to boom and bust. Peak profits often arrive with low multiples that later prove expensive once volumes drop, and here the multiple is not even low. Ethical checks clear, yet the combination of declining top line and stretched valuation leaves no margin for error.
Risk sits in the economic cycle itself. Any slowdown in building activity hits volumes and pricing quickly, and unknown competitive defences offer little protection when demand fades. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
USLM trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-18Distribution$108.39+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $138.
2026-07-03Distribution$108.39+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$108.39Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
