NAS10028,938−0.65%S&P7,586−0.45%GOLD$4,364+0.72%BTC$75,819VIX17.20+0.58%live tape · as of 11:00 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Building Materials
Knife River Corporation
KNF · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.3B · 5,298 employees
Knife River Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
57.63 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Knife River Corporation holds its Markdown at $57.63. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 28 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 28 days
Price at the screen
$57.63
Valuation
23.43 trailing · 14.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.52
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.37%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +56% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aggregates firm priced above fair value in cycles
Every new highway or housing site starts with crushed rock and concrete from outfits like this one, yet the shares sit well clear of what the numbers justify. At $81.71 against a fair value of $69.22 the stock offers no margin of safety and carries an opportunity rating of none, even though revenue is rising 16 percent. Forward earnings sit on a 20.6 times multiple while profit margins run at just 5 percent and return on equity reaches only 10 percent.
We pass because this is a classic cyclical business where peak earnings often coincide with compressed multiples that look cheap only in hindsight. The low margin and modest returns already signal limited pricing power, and any slowdown in construction spending would quickly expose that reality. Analyst targets may sit higher, yet the gap between price and our assessed worth remains wide.
Currency moves, fuel costs and local permitting add further swings that the market has not fully priced. The ethical screen clears without issue, but the valuation and industry rhythm together leave nothing compelling on the table. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KNF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Distribution$65.80-10.1%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-08-04Distribution$73.17-4.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-18Distribution$76.92+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-03Distribution$76.92+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$76.92Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
