The Screen · Communication Services · Telecom Services
AT&T
T · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $172.3B · 132,590 employees
AT&T Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
25.15 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-20
Screened 2026-08-20 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
AT&T holds its Accumulation at $25.15. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-20
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$25.15
Valuation
8.30 trailing · 9.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.90%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.26%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.44%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $26.32 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 2.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-20 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-20 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Telecom Titan Buckling Under Heavy Debt
Imagine every call, every text, every byte of data that zips through the digital ether above your head - much of it is funneled through AT&T's network. It’s a company that serves as the backbone of modern communication. But here's the catch, for a company that's supposed to be as solid as a telecommunications tower, it’s staggering under a mountain of debt, which is why our ethical screen has failed it.
The numbers here are intriguing on the surface; a forward P/E of 9.8x suggests a value play, and a modest revenue growth of 2% paired with a healthy profit margin of 17% and ROE of 18% might look appealing. Yet, the moat is only moderate, and the consensus buy rating from the analysts targets a higher price. But the ethical failure, stemming from an alarming debt ratio, casts a long shadow over these financials.
Why we pass. AT&T may have been a telecommunications titan, but the risk sits heavily in its debt-laden balance sheet. The market is pricing it with a discount, yet the ethical concerns are significant. This isn’t a case of peak earnings masking a cyclical value trap; it’s a fundamental issue with financial stability that could shake investor confidence. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
T trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup · changed$25.15+15.3%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-22Distribution$21.81+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$21.81+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Distribution$21.81+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Distribution$21.81-4.1%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$22.75+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Distribution$22.75+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Distribution$22.75+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Distribution$22.75+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$22.75Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
