Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.38 USD
Fair value14.99
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup16.38+0.0% to today ✓
2026-09-16Read Accumulation17.40-5.9% to today
2026-08-16Read Markup16.00+2.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution15.53+5.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vodafone Group plc ADR holds its Markup at $16.38. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-01
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$16.38
Valuation
N/A trailing · 9.70 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.51%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.83%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.58%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Vodafone's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 41% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Vodafone trades rich despite thin returns
Picture a household paying the same bill each month yet watching its provider struggle to turn that cash into lasting profit. Vodafone sits in that spot, offering mobile and fixed lines across Europe and beyond, yet the market price of $15.74 already exceeds our fair value of $13.68. A forward P/E of 9.8x looks cheap until the -1% profit margin and zero ROE show the earnings are not really there.
We pass because the narrow moat cannot protect returns when competition stays fierce and growth stays modest. Four analysts already mark the shares underperform with a $13 median target, and the ethical screen offers no offset for the weak operating numbers.
Currency moves, regulatory pressure on spectrum costs and the constant need to invest in networks add real downside that a low multiple does not fully capture. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VOD trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup · changed$16.38-5.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-08-16Markup · changed$16.00+3.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.53Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
