Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.82 USD
Fair value13.97
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markdown27.95-7.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-11Read Markup28.85-10.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 9% rise in 4 weeks
2026-09-12Read Distribution26.50-2.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-12Read Markup30.03-14.0% to today Distribution gives way to Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. holds its Markdown at $25.82. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$25.82
Valuation
23.69 trailing · 26.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Cash ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
613.83%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 613.8% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.81%
Below 5%
Only 4.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V.'s business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 614% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steel group priced for growth it cannot deliver
Picture a steel plant running flat out during a construction boom, then going quiet when orders vanish overnight. Grupo Simec sits in exactly that spot. Revenue is rising just 3 percent, margins sit at 6 percent and return on equity is a thin 3 percent, yet the shares trade at 27.9 times forward earnings, twice the level our work says is fair. Weak competitive position and an ethical screen failure on cash holdings leave nothing to offset the gap.
The business carries no durable edge and fails basic cash tests, so any recovery in volumes will not translate into lasting owner value. Cyclical industries often look inexpensive on peak earnings, yet here the multiple is already stretched while growth remains modest.
Risk sits in the mismatch between price and reality, plus the usual swings in steel demand and input costs that can erase thin margins quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SIM trades on NYSE American. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Markdown · changed$27.95-3.1%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$28.85+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%.
2026-10-02Distribution$28.85+8.9%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%.
2026-08-12Markup · changed$30.03-0.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%.
2026-07-18Distribution$30.05+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%.
2026-07-03Distribution$30.05+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$30.05Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
