Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price44.20 USD
Fair value56.47
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution44.20+0.0% to today
2026-08-24Read Accumulation43.95+0.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution53.48-17.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Celanese Corporation holds its Markdown at $44.20. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-01
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$44.20
Valuation
N/A trailing · 7.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
59.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 59.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.07%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.25%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Celanese's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 60% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap chemicals often hide a cycle trap
Picture a factory floor that hums when demand peaks and then sits half idle once orders fade. Celanese sits in exactly that spot, with revenue already shrinking two percent and both margins and return on equity deep in negative territory. The forward multiple of seven times looks tempting on paper, yet the business is cyclical by nature, so a low price to earnings ratio here usually flags peak profits rather than a bargain.
We give the stock a clear pass despite its ethical screen clearing without issue. Negative profitability and unknown competitive protection outweigh the sixteen percent margin of safety to our fair value, and analyst targets at sixty eight dollars do not change the underlying pattern. In basic materials the cycle tends to turn faster than models predict.
The real danger lies in earnings that have already rolled over while investors still price the shares as if the good years will last. Currency swings and customer destocking can widen the losses quickly, leaving the apparent discount looking expensive after the fact. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-24Distribution$45.70-14.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-18Distribution$53.48+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-03Distribution$53.48+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$53.48Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
