Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price14.85 USD
Fair value14.92
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation14.85+0.0% to today ✓
2026-08-31Read Markdown15.54-4.4% to today ✓
2026-07-31Read Markup19.23-22.8% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown15.00-1.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Green Plains Inc. holds its Markdown at $14.85. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 118 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 118 days
Price at the screen
$14.85
Valuation
8.89 trailing · 8.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
28.90%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 28.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.26%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.20%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Green Plains clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 29%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 0.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +35% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ethanol producer caught in the commodity cycle trap
Picture a Midwest farmer watching corn prices swing wildly while fuel demand stays flat. Green Plains refines that corn into ethanol and related products, yet the business is shrinking fast with revenue down 26 percent and both profit margin and return on equity already in negative territory. The forward multiple of 12.7 times looks tempting on the surface, but this is a classic cyclical setup where earnings have already peaked and the market is not offering any real margin of safety at the current price.
We pass because the numbers show a company burning cash in a tough commodity environment rather than a durable operator. Ethical checks clear, yet the balance sheet and growth path do not support ownership when fair value sits well below the traded level.
The real danger is the value-trap pattern common in chemicals and fuels: low multiples often signal the top of the cycle, not a bargain. Consensus targets sit higher, but history shows these rebounds can vanish quickly when feedstock costs or blending mandates shift. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GPRE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 224%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-08-31Markdown · changed$15.54-19.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 19.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 224%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$19.23+28.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 28.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 224%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Markdown$15.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 224%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Markdown$15.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$15.00Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
