NAS10030,808+1.00%S&P7,723+0.73%GOLD$4,196+0.81%BTC$86,156−0.37%VIX16.35+6.79%live tape · as of 09:01 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Chemicals
Olin Corporation
OLN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.9B · 7,849 employees
Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and India Middle East, Africa, India, Latin America, and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
16.82 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-22 · not a live quote Last reviewed 13 days ago
Screened 2026-09-22 · the tape above runs as of 09:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 16.82 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 12.30, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.82 USD
Fair value12.30
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Markdown17.52-4.0% to today ✓
2026-08-07Read Distribution21.99-23.5% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown25.13-33.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Olin Corporation holds its Markdown at $16.82. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$16.82
Valuation
N/A trailing · 21.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.69%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.06%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Olin's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 43% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 26.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chemical maker caught in a value trap
Picture a chlorine plant running flat out one year and idling the next when construction and autos slow. Olin sits in that exact spot. Revenue is already shrinking four percent, margins have flipped negative and return on equity sits at minus ten percent. The shares trade at twenty two dollars against a fair value nearer fifteen, so investors are paying a premium for a business that is contracting, not expanding.
The forward multiple of twenty three times earnings looks reasonable only if you ignore the cycle. In chemicals, peak margins often coincide with the lowest multiples, and this looks like one of those moments. Analysts call it a hold with a twenty five dollar median target, yet the underlying numbers show no moat and no growth to support that price.
Ethical checks clear, yet the cyclical trap remains. Earnings can collapse fast when demand fades, and a low multiple at the top of the cycle is rarely a bargain. The margin of safety sits thirty percent the wrong way. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OLN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$16.82-4.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$17.52-20.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 20.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-18Markdown$25.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-03Markdown$25.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$25.13Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
