An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Olin Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and India Middle East, Africa, India, Latin America, and Canada.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $18.59
Olin Corporation holds its Distribution at $18.59.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-07
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price
$18.59
Valuation
N/A trailing · 23.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.20
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$18.59
N/A P/E · 23.52 fwd
Our fair value
$12.31
34% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$20.00
+8% to current
Target low $19.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $30.00
▲ current $18.59 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$18.59
you are here
Conservative
$12.31
-34%
Analyst avg
$20.00
+8%
Our fair value
$12.31
-34%
Analyst high
$30.00
+61%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
-0.90%
Profit margin
-2.94%
Debt to equity
199.06
Analyst consensus
Hold · 13 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 42.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 12.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Chemical maker caught in a value trap
Picture a chlorine plant running flat out one year and idling the next when construction and autos slow. Olin sits in that exact spot. Revenue is already shrinking four percent, margins have flipped negative and return on equity sits at minus ten percent. The shares trade at twenty two dollars against a fair value nearer fifteen, so investors are paying a premium for a business that is contracting, not expanding.
The forward multiple of twenty three times earnings looks reasonable only if you ignore the cycle. In chemicals, peak margins often coincide with the lowest multiples, and this looks like one of those moments. Analysts call it a hold with a twenty five dollar median target, yet the underlying numbers show no moat and no growth to support that price.
Ethical checks clear, yet the cyclical trap remains. Earnings can collapse fast when demand fades, and a low multiple at the top of the cycle is rarely a bargain. The margin of safety sits thirty percent the wrong way. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
OLN trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29. Entered 2026-08-07 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-18Markdown$25.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-03Markdown$25.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$25.13Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming OLN
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
2026-04-10
Richard Blumenthal
Democrat
Purchase
1K–15K
10 Apr2026
Richard Blumenthal
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
10 Apr2026
Richard Blumenthal
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
10 Apr2026
Richard Blumenthal
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
10 Apr2026
Richard Blumenthal
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$28.22
-15.3%
$0.20
$854
-14.6%
2 months
$28.75
-16.8%
$0.20
$839
-16.1%
3 months
$25.83
-7.4%
$0.20
$934
-6.6%
6 months
$21.99
+8.7%
$0.40
$1,106
+10.6%
1 year
$21.21
+12.7%
$0.80
$1,165
+16.5%
2 years
$47.27
-49.4%
$1.60
$540
-46.0%
3 years
$47.78
-50.0%
$2.40
$551
-44.9%
5 years
$43.99
-45.7%
$4.00
$634
-36.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever OLN does next, these words stay.
Olin Corporation · OLN · Distribution · $18.59
Recorded 2026-08-07 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
