NAS10029,813+0.55%S&P7,744+0.28%GOLD$4,077+0.07%BTC$81,598+0.98%VIX16.87−3.71%latest tape · as of 20:04 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Chemicals
Dow Inc.
DOW · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $21.6B · 34,600 employees
Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, th…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
32.61 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 20:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price32.61 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingAvoid, current read accumulation
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.34)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 32.61 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 23.27, over the last year.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.34, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price32.61 USD
Fair value23.27
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-17Read Accumulation29.93+9.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown27.89+16.9% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 14% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-27Read Markup32.35+0.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Distribution33.97-4.0% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Dow Inc. holds its Accumulation at $32.61. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$32.61
Valuation
N/A trailing · 17.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.48%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
7.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.38%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Dow's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 33% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today DOW does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $23.27 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 19.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Dow Chemicals Mask a Classic Cyclical Trap
Grab any plastic container or insulation panel and Dow's basic chemicals sit somewhere in the supply chain. We pass because the shares trade well above our fair value estimate while revenue contracts and both profit margins and returns on equity sit deep in negative territory.
The forward multiple looks tolerable until you recall this is a cyclical industry where current earnings often represent the peak. A weak competitive moat offers little protection when volumes swing, and the balance sheet already fails our ethical screen on debt.
Sixteen analysts may carry a buy consensus with higher targets, yet the combination of cyclical exposure, shrinking volumes and leverage keeps us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DOW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-22Accumulation$29.93+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$29.93+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Accumulation$29.93+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Accumulation$29.93+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$29.93+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$28.51+0.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$28.42+1.9%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$27.89-13.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-08-27Markup · changed$32.35+8.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
