DOW · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $21.2B · 34,600 employees
Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, th…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
29.40 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Dow Inc. holds its Markdown at $29.40. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$29.40
Valuation
N/A trailing · 16.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.48%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
7.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.38%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $25.01 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 19.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Dow Chemicals Mask a Classic Cyclical Trap
Grab any plastic container or insulation panel and Dow's basic chemicals sit somewhere in the supply chain. We pass because the shares trade well above our fair value estimate while revenue contracts and both profit margins and returns on equity sit deep in negative territory.
The forward multiple looks tolerable until you recall this is a cyclical industry where current earnings often represent the peak. A weak competitive moat offers little protection when volumes swing, and the balance sheet already fails our ethical screen on debt.
Sixteen analysts may carry a buy consensus with higher targets, yet the combination of cyclical exposure, shrinking volumes and leverage keeps us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DOW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markup · changed$32.35+8.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-26Distribution$29.92-11.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-18Distribution$33.97+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-03Distribution$33.97+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$33.97Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
