An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum and alumina in the United States and Iceland.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $44.77
Century Aluminum Company holds its Markdown at $44.77.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-31
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price
$44.77
Valuation
13.32 trailing · 4.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.97
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$44.77
13.32 P/E · 4.11 fwd
Our fair value
$60.44
35% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$74.00
+65% to current
Target low $65.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $83.00
▲ current $44.77 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$44.77
you are here
Conservative
$60.44
+35%
Analyst avg
$74.00
+65%
Our fair value
$60.44
+35%
Analyst high
$83.00
+85%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
2.40%
Profit margin
13.68%
Debt to equity
42.50
Analyst consensus
None · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Aluminum producer looks cheap but cycles bite hard
Picture a smelter running flat out while metal prices swing like a wrecking ball. Century Aluminum shows a forward multiple of 3.8 times, a 14 percent profit margin and 32 percent return on equity, yet revenue growth sits at just 2 percent in a business that lives or dies by the aluminium price. The low multiple and margin of safety look tempting on paper, but this is exactly where cyclical traps form when earnings sit near peak levels.
We pass. The opportunity rating stays at none because the numbers reflect a commodity upswing rather than durable advantage. Unknown moat and minimal top-line growth mean any valuation edge can vanish the moment demand cools or energy costs spike, turning the apparent bargain into a value trap dressed in low multiples.
Ethical screens clear, which is a plus, yet the structural exposure to aluminium cycles and input volatility keeps the risk profile elevated. Peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples, and nothing here suggests this cycle behaves differently. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CENX trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 32.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 196%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $80. Entered 2026-07-24 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Markdown · changed$41.50-32.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 32.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 196%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-18Accumulation$61.19+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 196%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-03Accumulation$61.19+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$61.19Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$60.18
-1.6%
·
$984
-1.6%
2 months
$66.96
-11.6%
·
$884
-11.6%
3 months
$57.71
+2.6%
·
$1,026
+2.6%
6 months
$32.32
+83.2%
·
$1,832
+83.2%
1 year
$19.98
+196.4%
·
$2,964
+196.4%
2 years
$15.79
+275.1%
·
$3,751
+275.1%
3 years
$8.42
+603.3%
·
$7,033
+603.3%
5 years
$13.14
+350.7%
·
$4,507
+350.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CENX does next, these words stay.
Century Aluminum Company · CENX · Markdown · $44.77
Recorded 2026-07-31 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
