Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
155.50 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-26
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation holds its Distribution at $155.50. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 81 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 81 days
Price at the screen
$155.50
Valuation
11.54 trailing · 13.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.68%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.02%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aluminum cycles rarely reward buyers at the peak
Every time a construction boom or aerospace order spike lifts aluminum demand, the mills look like they have finally cracked the code. Kaiser is riding one of those moments, with revenue up 42 percent, yet the shares sit 22 percent above our fair value and offer no margin of safety. A forward multiple of 15 times feels reasonable until you remember this is a cyclical business where today's earnings often mark the high-water mark rather than a new base.
The thin 4 percent profit margin and 19 percent return on equity show the company is still working hard just to stay in the middle of the pack. Without a clear moat and with only a hold rating from the three analysts, the stock offers little edge once the current cycle cools. Ethical screens are cleared, but that alone does not turn a fair-value miss into an opportunity.
The real danger is the classic cyclical trap: earnings look strong, the multiple compresses, and investors buy what later proves to be peak-cycle profits. When demand normalises, both revenue and margins can fall sharply, leaving holders with a lower earnings base and a still-elevated price. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KALU trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Distribution$155.50-1.4%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $165.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-18Markup$190.63+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-03Markup$190.63+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$190.63Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
