An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United Sta…
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $44.36
Alcoa Corp holds its Distribution at $44.36.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 9 days
Price
$44.36
Valuation
9.22 trailing · 7.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.63
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$44.36
9.22 P/E · 7.48 fwd
Our fair value
$54.81
24% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$59.50
+34% to current
Target low $49.70Analyst target rangeTarget high $80.00
▲ current $44.36 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$44.36
you are here
Conservative
$44.73
+1%
Analyst avg
$59.50
+34%
Our fair value
$54.81
+24%
Analyst high
$80.00
+80%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
31.40%
Profit margin
9.39%
Debt to equity
29.92
Analyst consensus
Buy · 12 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Aluminium swings hide a classic trap
Aluminium prices swing like a pendulum in a storm, and Alcoa rides every gust from mine to smelter. At first glance the numbers look attractive, revenue up 31 percent, a 7.1 times forward multiple and an 18 percent return on equity. Yet the stock earns an opportunity rating of none because this is a cyclical business dressed up as a bargain.
The narrow moat and ethical pass do not change the core problem. Peak-cycle earnings often produce the lowest multiples, and investors who buy the dip in aluminium frequently watch those earnings collapse when demand cools. Fair value sits higher at 58 dollars, but the gap offers little comfort once the cycle turns.
Analysts see 64 dollars ahead and the market buys the story for now. Still, commodity exposure, energy costs and global oversupply remain real threats that no low multiple can fully offset. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 36.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 135%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82. Entered 2026-07-20 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Markup$43.98-36.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 36.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 135%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-18Markup$68.77+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 135%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-16Markup$68.77+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 135%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-03Markup$68.77+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$68.77Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming AA
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
7 Feb2025
Tim Walberg
Republican
buy
15K–50K
7 Feb2025
Tim Walberg
Republican
buy
1K–15K
5 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
16 Jun2026
Matt Van Epps
Republican
sell
1K–15K
15 May2026
David Taylor
Republican
sell
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$65.24
+2.8%
$0.10
$1,029
+2.9%
2 months
$72.91
-8.1%
$0.10
$921
-7.9%
3 months
$65.82
+1.9%
$0.10
$1,020
+2.0%
6 months
$47.09
+42.4%
$0.20
$1,428
+42.8%
1 year
$28.49
+135.3%
$0.40
$2,367
+136.7%
2 years
$40.28
+66.4%
$0.80
$1,684
+68.4%
3 years
$34.02
+97.1%
$1.20
$2,006
+100.6%
5 years
$35.59
+88.4%
$1.90
$1,937
+93.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AA does next, these words stay.
Alcoa Corp · AA · Distribution · $44.36
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically