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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Performance Food Group Company
PFGC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $14.4B · 42,570 employees
Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
92.41 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote Last reviewed 14 days ago
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 11:17 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 92.41 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 131.72, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price92.41 USD
Fair value131.72
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown92.41+0.0% to today
2026-09-09Read Distribution99.32-7.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup97.12-4.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Performance Food Group Company holds its Markdown at $92.41. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$92.41
Valuation
40.35 trailing · 13.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.72%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.28%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Performance Food's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 42.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +41% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trucks that restock every diner run thin margins
Picture the lorries that keep restaurant kitchens and corner shops stocked across North America. Performance Food Group moves the beef, poultry and packaged goods that make those meals possible, yet it earns just a 1% profit margin and a 7% return on equity.
The shares sit only 9% below our fair value with revenue growing 6% and a forward multiple of 19.6 times earnings. A narrow moat and modest returns leave little room for outperformance, so the name earns no opportunity rating despite clearing our ethical screen.
Food distribution stays exposed to inflation swings, fuel costs and customer concentration that can squeeze already slim profits. Consensus targets sit higher, but the numbers show a business priced for steady rather than superior results.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PFGC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$92.41-7.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $119.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $119.
2026-08-08Markup$115.53+19.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $119.
2026-07-18Markup$97.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $119.
2026-07-03Markup$97.12+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$97.12Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.