NAS10030,482+2.83%S&P7,765+1.49%GOLD$4,362−0.51%BTC$85,955−0.75%VIX14.66−1.41%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
United Natural Foods, Inc.
UNFI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.8B · 25,600 employees
United Natural Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural, organic, specialty, produce, and conventional grocery and non-food products in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
46.82 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 4 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 46.82 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 61.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price46.82 USD
Fair value61.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-15Read Markdown47.06-0.5% to today ✓
2026-07-03Read Accumulation50.39-7.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
United Natural Foods, Inc. holds its Markdown at $46.82. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$46.82
Valuation
34.94 trailing · 11.53 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.01%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Food Distributor With Shrinking Sales and Losses
Picture a wholesaler shifting boxes of organic produce and staples from warehouse to supermarket shelves. United Natural Foods handles that job across the US and Canada, yet revenue is already falling 4 percent and both profit margin and return on equity sit below zero. The shares trade above our fair value with a negative margin of safety, so we see no opportunity here.
Analysts still rate the stock a buy with a median target near the current price, but forward earnings sit at 15.3 times while the business posts no growth and no profits. Ethical checks clear, yet the numbers show a company unable to cover its cost of capital or expand its top line.
Cyclical food distribution can mask problems until volumes drop further or working capital tightens. Without visible improvement in margins or revenue, the gap between price and value is likely to widen rather than close. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UNFI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown$47.98+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markdown$47.98+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Markdown$47.98+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Markdown$47.98+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Markdown$47.98+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Markdown$47.98+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markdown$47.98+2.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Markdown · changed$47.06-6.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-18Accumulation$50.39+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-03Accumulation$50.39+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
